The validation of the royal decree-law of the shock plan against the economic crisis aggravated by the war in Ukraine has saved the Government of Pedro Sánchez on the verge of the campaign, but it illustrates a marked parliamentary fragility. The removal of ERC due to the espionage scandal marks a turning point that predicts a rest of the legislature undermined by lack of confidence. The next few months will see a brave fight against time. Sánchez has no choice but to fight against a current that, in principle, pushes Alberto Núñez Feijóo towards Moncloa and wait for the Russian invasion to end as soon as possible, the economic horizon clears and recovery is visible.
Sánchez has no choice but to minimize damage and wait for Yolanda Díaz to recompose a space to the left of the PSOE that is capable of later adding a clear majority to retain power. The president’s bet has several fronts, in principle of difficult management so that they are compatible. On the one hand, he must appease the relationship with ERC, which is facing a serious risk of no return if a political solution to the crisis opened by the espionage scandal is not sought. There is no easy way out of the matter, because the PSOE is not going to turn the State upside down, but at the same time it has to commit itself to clarifying the case, collaborating with the justice system, if necessary, and also establishing control mechanisms that prevent this issue from repeating itself, damaging the democratic credibility of Spain. The underlying problem is that the deflation strategy in Catalonia achieved by the Sánchez Executive seems to have come crashing down with a crash.
The next few months will be used by Sánchez to try to surf the problems. In the chamber, the hypothesis of a remodeling of the Government gains strength again.